A fall that will go down in history. The TPP midweek update.

On Wednesday 2^nd April, President Trump announced his tariffs. What happened next will go down in market history.

We were all expecting them. Tariffs have been a Trump plan since his first term as President. The tariffs themselves were not a problem; however, what we actually got that night was reminiscent of a child’s school presentation. He even had a big silly board with made-up numbers that nobody could believe were real. He looked pleased as punch with it.

What followed was the worst trading day since the pandemic.

On Thursday, 3rd April, the S&P 500 fell 4.8% in a brutal selloff on worries that the tariffs would hit economic growth and stoke inflation. This was its worst day since June 2020, and it put the index at 12.2% below its all-time high which was set only 2 months prior.

Nothing was spared. The S&P Equal Weight fell 4.8%, the Nasdaq 100 fell 5.4%, and the Russell 2000, the benchmark of the real economy, fell 6.6%.

Shares of retailers that source a large portion of the products they sell from other countries were among the big decliners on Thursday. Nike was down 14%, while Best Buy slid 18%. Target and Dollar Tree dropped 11% and 13%, respectively, while Williams-Sonoma, Ralph Lauren and Deckers Outdoor, owner of shoe brands such as UGG and Hoka, all tumbled about 15%.

Chip giant Nvidia fell 7.8%, while Apple saw losses of 9.3% (its biggest one-day loss since March 2020). Consumer cyclical stocks also saw major declines, with furniture retailer Wayfair plunging 27% and automaker Ford Motor down 5%.

The record for the worst trading day since the pandemic lasted only 1 day.

On Friday, April 4th, the S&P 500 experienced a significant decline, marking its worst single-day drop since the COVID-19 crisis………..again. The S&P 500 fell 6.0%, along with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (down 5.5%) and the Nasdaq (down 5.8%), as China responded to President Donald Trump's tariff announcement with its own retaliatory tariffs.

Many records were broken on Friday 4^th. The $5-trillion loss marked a record two-day decline for the S&P 500 benchmark, exceeding a two-day loss of $3.3 trillion in March 2020 when the pandemic ripped across global markets, according to LSEG data compiled by Reuters.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq had fallen 22.7% from its December 16 record close as investors fled riskier assets on the tariff worries. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and pan-European STOXX 600 index each confirmed they were in a correction (a more than 10% trough).

The pan-European STOXX index closed 5.1% lower, also marking its biggest daily loss since the COVID-19-fuelled selloff in 2020. The index fell nearly 12% from its March 3 all time high.

All three of the major U.S. stock indexes suffered their biggest weekly percentage losses since March 2020, and the Cboe Volatility Index jumped to 45.31, its highest closing level since April 2020.

Shares of the world's largest technology companies were down sharply across the board again Friday. AI chipmaker Nvidia fell more than 7%, while EV maker Tesla plunged 10%. Apple, which has a major manufacturing presence in China, declined 7% after a 9% drop yesterday. Chipmaker Broadcom and Facebook parent Meta Platforms were off 5%, while Amazon fell 4%, and Microsoft, and Alphabet each slipped more than 3%.

Chip stocks were among the hardest hit, with Intel, Arm Holdings, Micron and Marvell Technology all falling more than 10%. The iShares Semiconductor ETF was down 7.5%.

In other sectors, Boeing, which lost 10% on the Thursday was down another 9.5% on Friday, while GE Healthcare and GE Aerospace slid 16% and 11%, respectively.

Major financial institutions also remained under pressure, as Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup and Goldman Sachs each slid more than 7%. Energy stocks were also on the decline as oil prices continued to fall. Shares of Exxon Mobil and Chevron were down 7% and 8%, respectively.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2,231.07 points, or 5.50%, to 38,314.86. The index confirmed a correction, finishing more than 10% below its record closing high from December 4.

Global stocks had fallen faster than we’d seen in years.

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The markets had collapsed and finished the week with a recent record fall. Was the weekend a time to gather our thoughts and bring about market calm?

On Monday, Global markets plunged further, deepening the global stock rout as China responded forcefully to the punishing tariffs.

Germany’s DAX opened down 9%, while London’s FTSE was about 5% lower. European markets were, on the whole, faring better than Asian markets in early trade. Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 index closed 7.9% lower, while the broader Topix finished down 7.7%. Tech giant Sony plummeted more than 10%.

In Hong Kong, where financial markets reopened after a public holiday, the benchmark Hang Seng index closed more than 13% lower in its worst single trading day since 1997, according to the index’s list of the biggest historic daily losses. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite Index closed 7.3% lower. The blue-chip CSI300 index also lost about 7%.

When the US opened later on Monday, the damage had been done. Whatever Wall Street’s plan was, their starting point was a lot lower than expected. What came next was volatility not seen since the ‘flash crash’ of 2010. The S&P’s intraday swing was the widest on a percentage basis for 15 years. The intraday low was 4,835.04, while the high was 5,246.57; this was eventually divided by the closing price of 5,062.25, equalling an 8.13% range.

The volatility has been unlike anything we’ve seen since March 2020, when the world was forced to shut down.

On Monday, 7^th April, the current bottom was reached. It was tested again on Wednesday, 9^th before the Trump administration announced a tariff pause, sparking another record move – this time to the upside.

Stocks surged to one of their biggest gains since World War II after President Donald Trump backed off his tariffs on most nations for 90 days even as he further jacked up the tax rate on Chinese imports to 125%.

The S&P 500 soared 9.5% on Wednesday, although the index is still below where it was when Trump announced his sweeping set of tariffs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average flew nearly 3,000 points higher, and the Nasdaq composite jumped 12.2%. The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies rose 152.45 points, or 8.7%, to 1,913.16.

Once again, the next day saw more volatility and the market fell once again, wiping out much of the previous day's gains before settling down.

What’s Next? Nobody Knows.

Since then, the rollercoaster has continued, but the gradual rally back does seem to have begun. We wouldn’t attempt to predict what’s next, but the initial shock factor of the ridiculous numbers thrown around by the madman in the White House does seem to have dissipated somewhat.

At times like this we have to hold tight. On Monday 7^th, Futures tied to the S&P 500 hit a trough of more than 20% from their all-time highs – reaching the definition of a Bear Market.

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While past performance can never be guaranteed to be relied upon for future results, at this point, performance history and empirical evidence are what we have from which to base predictions. One thing that history tells us about navigating volatile markets is that they are worth navigating.

Market crashes always feel scary when they happen, but when we look back at previous ones, we see opportunity.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and should not be considered in rendering any legal, business or financial advice. Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions.

This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The views and strategies described may not be suitable for all investors. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only.

Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Therefore, you should not assume that the future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy will be profitable or equal to the corresponding past performance.

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